Journals
2011 EN
Fang Zhao · J. Marshall Shepherd
In October 2010, the water level upstream of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) reached the designated 175-m level. The associated inundation and land use–land cover changes have important implications for water resource management, agriculture, ecosystems, and the hydroclimate. Ultimately, it is important to quantify whether the dam-related changes have altered precipitation patterns. Since rain gauges are limited in the region, satellite-based methods are viable. This study is the first to validate NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data from 1998 to 2009 using 34 national meteorological rain gauges in the Three Gorges region. Areal average satellite estimates are first verified with areal average rain gauge data both annually and seasonally. Then based on empirical orthogonal functions, the study area is divided into two subregions, and similar validation procedures are performed for both subregions. TMPA data are found to have high correlations...
American Meteorological Society
Journals
2011 EN
A. R. Jacobson · R. H. Holzworth · M. McCarthy
+1 more
The lightning detector (LD) on the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite uses a pair of silicon photodiodes, viewing each flank at right angles to the satellite track over an extended field of view. The data product is a report every ½ s of the number of digitizer cycles (125 μs each) for which the detected power was in predefined ranges. The performance of this system over the first 2.5 years of the C/NOFS mission is discussed, statistics of its lightning observations are presented, and a statistical cross validation using the World-Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) as a ground truth is provided. It is found that the LD reports of lightning, despite their blunt timing (½ s), show correlation with strokes detected and located by WWLLN. The irradiance of these strokes lies on the high-power flank of the irradiance distribution seen earlier by the FORTE satellite. Thus, the LD thresholds favor high-power lightning; it is shown that the closest portion of the field of view is more likely to provide WWLLN coincidences than is the furthest portion of the field of view. Statistics of lightning incidence are examined at low latitudes, versus longitude, and distributions that are consistent with those established earlier by the OTD and LIS instruments are retrieved. Finally, the longitude dependence of the irradiance per stroke is examined and the ways in which it differs between the three major lightning “hot spots” is explored. It is observed that the radiance per stroke over the Congo Basin is lower than that over the other two hot spots (Maritime Continent/South Asia and the Americas), consistent with earlier observations by the OTD imager.
American Meteorological Society
Journals
2011 EN
Masafumi Hirose · Shuji Shimizu · Riko Oki
+3 more
The incidence-angle differences of estimated surface rainfall obtained from the precipitation radar (PR) on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite were investigated. The bias before the orbit boost in August 2001 relative to the near-nadir statistics was 2.7% over the ocean and −5.8% over land. After the boost, the bias was −3.2% and −9.5%, respectively. These biases were further quantified with respect to error sources, that is, the beam mismatch correction error, detection capability of storms with low-level storm-top height, and residual effects. For shallow storms lower than 3 km, most incidence-angle differences were caused by main lobe contamination. For nonshallow storms, several error factors resulted in 5.3% overestimates over the ocean and 5.1% underestimates over land for the period before the boost. The remaining uncertainty in local low-level profiles was identified as a controversial issue. The bias-corrected dataset updates the interannual variation in rainfall obtained from the TRMM PR. The increasing rainfall features and recent high-rainfall years were consistent with prior studies based on other microwave sensors. The coherent signals and slight differences in the temporal variation compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data indicate the importance of further internal and cross validations based on long-term observation by multiple sensors.
American Meteorological Society
Journals
2011 EN
Kristen L. Rasmussen · Robert A. Houze
Extreme orogenic convective storms in southeastern South America are divided into three categories: storms with deep convective cores, storms with wide convective cores, and storms containing broad stratiform regions. Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite’s Precipitation Radar show that storms with wide convective cores are the most frequent, tending to originate near the Sierra de Cordoba range. Downslope flow at upper levels caps a nocturnally enhanced low-level jet, thus preventing convection from breaking out until the jet hits a steep slope of terrain, such as the Sierra de Cordoba Mountains or Andean foothills, so that the moist low-level air is lifted enough to release the instability and overcome the cap. This capping and triggering is similar to the way intense convection is released near the northwestern Himalayas. However, the intense storms with wide convective cores over southeastern South America are unlike their Himalayan counterparts in that they exhibit leadi...
American Meteorological Society
Journals
2011 EN
Eric W. Uhlhorn · David S. Nolan
The maximum surface wind speed is an important parameter for tropical cyclone operational analysis and forecasting, since it defines the intensity of a cyclone. Operational forecast centers typically refer the wind speed to a maximum 1- or 10-min averaged value. Aircraft reconnaissance provides measurements of surface winds; however, because of the large variation of winds in the eyewall, it remains unclear to what extent observing the maximum wind is limited by the sampling pattern. Estimating storm intensity as simply the maximum of the observed winds is generally assumed by forecasters to underestimate the true storm intensity. The work presented herein attempts to quantify this difference by applying a methodology borrowed from the observing system simulation experiment concept, in which simulated “observations” are drawn from a numerical model. These “observations” may then be compared to the actual peak wind speed of the simulation. By sampling a high-resolution numerical simulation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) with a virtual aircraft equipped with a stepped-frequency microwave radiometer flying a standard “figure-four” pattern, the authors find that the highest wind observed over a flight typically underestimates the 1-min averaged model wind speed by 8.5% ± 1.5%. In contrast, due to its corresponding larger spatial scale, the 10-min averaged maximum wind speed is far less underestimated (1.5% ± 1.7%) using the same sampling method. These results support the National Hurricane Center’s practice, which typically assumes that the peak 1-min wind is somewhat greater than the highest observed wind speed over a single reconnaissance aircraft mission.
American Meteorological Society
Journals
2011 EN
Nurjanna Joko Trilaksono · Shigenori Otsuka · Shigeo Yoden
A numerical experiment using a regional nonhydrostatic model is performed to investigate the synoptic condition related to the heavy precipitation event that occurred at Jakarta in West Java, Indonesia, in January–February 2007. A time-lagged ensemble forecast method is employed with nine ensemble members. The ensemble mean well reproduces the temporal modulation of the spatial distributions of precipitation obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data. During the simulated two months, several monsoon surges are observed, but only the surge event during which the Jakarta flood event occurred is associated with a cold anomaly. The top of the cold northerly is about 1.5 km. The cold surge event is preceded by the so-called Borneo vortex event, which is dominated by a cyclonic vortex around Borneo, Indonesia, with a horizontal scale of 1000 km and a vertical scale of 3 km. An analysis of cumulative distribution functions in a pentad time scale shows the modulation of the probability of rainfall rate. In pentad 7 (31 January–4 February), which includes the heavy rainfall event, the fraction of the area with precipitation is the highest and the contribution of heavy rainfall to the total amount is one of the highest in the two-month period. The diurnal cycle of occurrence of heavy rainfall is also modulated; in pentad 7, semidiurnal variation becomes dominant, and the largest peak appears in the early morning
American Meteorological Society
Journals
2011 EN
Haiyan Jiang
Convective intensity proxies measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Precipitation Radar (PR), and Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) are used to assess the relationship between intense convection in the inner core and tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change. Using the cumulative distribution functions of 24-h intensity changes from the 1998–2008 best-track data for global TCs, five intensity change categories are defined: rapidly intensifying (RI), slowly intensifying, neutral, slowly weakening, and rapidly weakening. TRMM observations of global TCs during 1998–2008 are used to generate the distributions of convective properties in the storm’s inner-core region for different storm intensity change categories. To examine the hypothesis of hot towers near the eye as an indicator of RI, hot towers are defined by precipitation features with 20-dBZ radar echo height reaching 14.5 km.The differences in the convective parameters between rapidly intensifying TCs...
American Meteorological Society
Journals
2011 EN
Nathalie Voisin · Florian Pappenberger · Dennis P. Lettenmaier
+2 more
A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003–07. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and winds, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel setup was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effects of the initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The hydrologic prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. The initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.
American Meteorological Society
Journals
2011 EN
Si Gao · Long S. Chiu
A statistical–dynamical model has been used for operational guidance for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction. In this study, several multiple linear regression models and neural network (NN) models are developed for the intensity prediction of western North Pacific TCs at 24-, 48-, and 72-h intervals. The multiple linear regression models include a model of climatology and persistence (CLIPER), a model based on the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction System (STIPS), which serves as the base regression model (BASE), and a model of STIPS with additional satellite estimates of surface evaporation (SLHF) and inner-core rain rate (IRR, STIPER model). A revised equation for the TC maximum potential intensity is derived using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager optimally interpolated sea surface temperature data, which have higher temporal and spatial resolutions. Analyses of the resulting models show the marginal improvement of STIPER over BASE. However, IRR and SLHF are fou...
American Meteorological Society
Journals
2011 EN
Isabel García · Lawrence A. Tabak
Despite impressive worldwide improvements in oral health, inequalities in oral health status among and within countries remain a daunting public health challenge. Oral health inequalities arise from a complex web of health determinants, including social, behavioral, economic, genetic, environmental, and health system factors. Eliminating these inequalities cannot be accomplished in isolation of oral health from overall health, or without recognizing that oral health is influenced at multiple individual, family, community, and health systems levels. For several reasons, this is an opportune time for global efforts targeted at reducing oral health inequalities. Global health is increasingly viewed not just as a humanitarian obligation, but also as a vehicle for health diplomacy and part of the broader mission to reduce poverty, build stronger economies, and strengthen global security. Despite the global economic recession, there are trends that portend well for support of global health efforts: increased globalization of research and development, growing investment from private philanthropy, an absolute growth of spending in research and innovation, and an enhanced interest in global health among young people. More systematic and far-reaching efforts will be required to address oral health inequalities through the engagement of oral health funders and sponsors of research, with partners from multiple public and private sectors. The oral health community must be "at the table" with other health disciplines and create opportunities for eliminating inequalities through collaborations that can harness both the intellectual and financial resources of multiple sectors and institutions.