Hierarchical communication between cells with distinct positional memories orchestrates the regeneration of missing limb structures in axolotls.
Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) cycle threshold (Ct) values can be used to estimate the viral burden of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and predict population-level epidemic trends. We investigated the use of epidemic transmission modeling and machine learning (ML) based on Ct value distribution for SARS-CoV-2 incidence prediction in British Columbia, Canada during an Omicron subvariant BA.1-predominant period from November 2021 to January 2022. Using real-world data, we developed an epidemic transmission model that was first validated on outbreak data, and subsequently fitted to province-level data to predict incidence. Using simulated data, we developed a ML pipeline including five models to predict the reproductive number as a measure of transmission potential based on Ct value distribution, and validated it on out-of-sample province-level data. The epidemic transmission model demonstrated accurate prediction with the real incidence falling within the 95% credible interval of the predicted MCMC chains for both the long-term care facility outbreak, and province-level data. The ML models demonstrated good performance with a median mean squared error (MSE) lower than 0.17 across all models, and improved performance with increasing sample size. The variability of the Ct distribution around the mean was the strongest predictor of the reproductive number. These modeling approaches demonstrated utility for incidence and reproductive number prediction, and have potential to complement traditional surveillance in real time to guide public health interventions.
The year 2026 marks the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. But does the nation begin in 1776, or do we trace its origins to some point earlier—for example, the arrival of the first enslaved people in 1619 or the initial settlement of Indigenous people? What’s at stake with establishing a date that marks the nation’s origins? Where does the history of the nation begin? In colonial New England, the Chesapeake, or in the Southwest? In this unprecedented volume, leading thinkers come together to debate these—and many other—issues. Their conversation shows that U.S history is not just about what happened but who gets to tell the story and the political implications of the narratives we tell. The participants include two Pulitzer Prize winners: Nikole Hannah-Jones, who created the 1619 Project and ignited a national conversation about slavery and the nation’s founding; and Annette Gordon-Reed, who documented Thomas Jefferson’s relationship with Sally Hemmings. The other specialists include experts in Asian American, civil rights, Native American, Latino, LGBT, and early American history.
Available open access digitally under CC-BY licence. This book shares insights from the Healthy Ageing Challenge, bringing research, business, policy and practice together to create age-friendly homes, workplaces and communities. Spanning co-design with older people, business collaboration and innovations in design, work, housing, culture and health, it explores the real-world impact of ageing research and the possibilities for business in developing an ageing market. From age-friendly homes to climate-resilient communities, the book provides a rich evidence base for healthier, more connected lives.