Journals
2026 EN
Richter Friederike · Safra Lou
This study examines how the Ukraine war, a critical focusing event within the broader context of rising tensions between Russia and the West, influenced public perceptions of defence policy in France. Defence issues in France are typically characterised by a permissive consensus, with limited public scrutiny outside moments of crisis. Using three-wave survey data (July 2021, March 2022, and July 2022), we analyse shifts in public opinion on key defence dimensions, including military spending, international cooperation, and high-intensity combat operations. Employing regression and cluster analyses, we assess both the stability of defence-related concerns and the impact of issue attributes – emotional intensity, concreteness, and obtrusiveness – on perceived importance over time. Our findings reveal that the Ukraine war did not fundamentally alter the structure of public opinion on defence issues. Instead, the relative influence of concreteness and obtrusiveness increased over time, suggesting a deliberative rather than a reactive public response. These results challenge the assumption that crises inherently destabilise public opinion and highlight the resilience of defence attitudes. Our study thus underscores the need for policymakers to account for longer-term public concerns rather than relying solely on crisis-driven shifts when shaping defence policy.
Journals
2026 EN
Sacchi Stefano · Buzzelli Gregorio · de la Porte Caroline
The intensification of military conflict is leading to sharp increases in military spending across advanced democracies. As public budgets are constrained, the welfare state is a candidate for savings, which could lead to a trade-off between military and social expenditure. Our paper explores how the public perceives this possible trade-off. To do this, we use original public opinion data fielded in 10 advanced industrial democracies to examine the role of different individual and contextual factors that shape attitudes on this trade-off. The results reveal, firstly, widespread opposition to welfare retrenchment for funding military spending. Secondly, our regression analysis identifies unidimensional political conflict: opposition to welfare cuts decreases steadily from the radical left to the right. Thirdly, individual level of concern for war and socio-economic conditions seem to matter much less. Fourthly, individuals in countries with a stronger military presence are more inclined to support welfare cuts, although increases in national military spending further fuels opposition to cuts. The implication is that policymakers who prioritize defence expenditure for national security concerns, may be compelled to decrease welfare expenditure, but this could be politically contentious and could lead to electoral backlash.
Journals
2026 EN
Zheng Panpan · Li Zhen · Ma Ruiqi
We empirically examine the impact of the US–China trade war (trade war) on Chinese firms’ key digital technological innovation (KDI) using the difference-in-difference (DID) method, considering trade war as a quasi-natural experiment. Our findings suggest that the trade war promotes Chinese firms to apply for more key digital technology patents (KDPs). Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promotion is stronger in firms of lower leverage and high-tech industries. Additional analysis indicates that KDI helps mitigate the adverse impact of trade war on Chinese firms’ market performance.
Journals
2026 EN
Lee Geesun · Silva Nareth · Jeong Jinho
Previous studies have primarily examined the impact of wars on stock markets within their borders. Our study extends this to countries that are not directly involved in the war. Specifically, we employ TVP-VAR connectedness network approach to investigate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on stock market linkages in Latin America. We find that there was a marginal increase in stock market linkages in Latin America at the onset of the war. However, they returned to its pre-war levels, implying the resilience of Latin American stock market segmentation to war outside its borders. While this result suggests a potential opportunity for international investors to diversify geopolitical risk, we further find indirect effects of the war on the region through commodity markets, which may limit the diversification benefits. While previous studies suggest that external shocks such as pandemics and wars increase stock market integration, the results in this study show that they do not have uniform effects on stock market integration. Instead, our study highlights the importance of commodity markets in the investigation of stock market integration.
Journals
2026 UN
Zhang Fangyi · Ker Alan · Aradhyula Satheesh
We estimate the volatility dynamics of wheat prices across the United States, Ukraine, and China between 2013 and 2023. To capture differing volatility regimes caused by various factors including political unrest, we consider a mixture of two trivariate GARCH processes. We find distinctive features between the mixtures: component 1 is characterized by higher volatility and greater spillover effects whereas component 2 is characterized by lower and more persistent volatility. By modelling volatilities as mixtures, we are able to consider what factors drive component membership. We find the probability of the higher volatility regime increased by 10% under Trump’s presidency and by 40% during the Russia-Ukraine war.
Journals
2026 EN
Bouattour Mondher · Amar Amine Ben · Hachicha Néjib
This paper investigates the sensitivity of a set of Middle Eastern stock markets to the most recent armed confrontation between Hamas and Israel. The analysis reveals a discernible negative impact across almost all markets considered, with the Israeli stock market experiencing the most pronounced effect on the event day. Interestingly, the Israeli stock market appears to be relatively more efficient than those of neighbouring countries. At the sector level, among the negatively affected sectors, the energy sector experienced the most pronounced impact. However, some sectors, notably materials, industrials, and information technology, were relatively resilient to this geostrategic shock.
Journals
2026 EN
Hanif Waqas · Khoury Rim El · Kang Sang Hoon
This study examines the interconnectedness between crude oil and European sectors during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Using a quantile coherence approach, we investigate the intraday dynamics of market interactions at different quantiles and frequencies. The findings reveal that in the short-term, oil emerges as a robust hedge for 12 sectors in stable market conditions, transitioning to a weaker hedge during bullish and bearish market conditions. Furthermore, the long-term analysis shows a stronger coherence between oil and stock sector indices. The medium-term and long-term analyses reveal shifts in dependence structures, with oil acting as a safe haven in bullish markets for specific sectors. These findings provide valuable insights for investors and policymakers in managing risks amid geopolitical events, contributing to the existing literature on oil-European sector dynamics.
Journals
2026 EN
Chen Chengfeng · Chen Siyi
Using data on Malaysian listed firms, this study offers new evidence on how China–US trade propagates to bystander countries. By employing textual analysis and the Difference-in-Difference method, we find that Malaysian firms exposed to the trade war, especially firms with more investments and exports to either China or America, experience higher uncertainty shocks. Trade war-related uncertainty leads to declines in firm revenues, profits and exports.
Journals
2026 EN
Bresciani Marco
This article focuses on the epistemic ruptures and political debates concerning socialism, Europe and democracy within the Italian Left from the global crises of the 1970s to the Eastern European transitions of the early 1990s. It explores the networks and trajectories of socialists who didn’t identify with Bettino Craxi’s socialist government and often challenged it. Although they were sharp critics of the Soviet Union, they had different attitudes towards the Italian communists. Particular attention is paid to Vittorio Foa, Antonio Giolitti, Bruno Trentin, Luciano Cafagna and Giuliano Amato, who belonged to different generations and engaged with East–West European left-wing cultures. Throughout the 1980s they sought to critically evaluate end redefine the twentieth-century left-wing concepts. They questioned the myth of the historical significance of the working class, addressed the crises of the Fordist model, Soviet-style statism and welfare states, as well as developed hybrid ideas of socialism, liberalism, reformism and Europeanism. In their effort to ‘reinvent the Left’, they made often controversial interventions in the contested political space between socialists and communists. They challenged previous leftist traditions by contrasting ‘neoliberalism’ in this way, but their ideas did not coalesce into a coherent ‘third way’ vision – let alone full acceptance of ‘neoliberalism’. Foa, Giolitti and their interlocutors remained rooted in the horizon of socialism. These ideas continued to circulate well after the end of the Cold War and the sudden disappearance of the Socialist Party, as well as the ambiguous transformation of the Communist Party. In the aftermath of the transitions to the Eastern European post-communist regimes and the collapse of the Italian party system between 1989 and 1993, however, their ideas experienced a ‘strange defeat’.
Journals
2026 EN
Bitumi Alessandra
This article examines how the European Community (EC) responded to the perceived decline of the post-war Keynesian model of embedded capitalism. Recent scholarship on European integration and globalization challenges the idea of a linear shift from Keynesianism to ‘neoliberalism’, highlighting instead a more complex landscape marked by negotiation, contestation and the coexistence of competing policy frameworks. The article focuses on the discourse and politics of Jacques Delors who, as president of the European Commission from 1985 to 1995, played a central role in articulating a response to those challenges. His tenure offers a compelling lens for examining how his initiatives embodied a collective effort to reposition Western Europe within a global economic landscape transformed by international Reaganomics. Delors’ initiatives were shaped by ambiguity and compromise, reflecting both the possibilities and the limits of advancing a distinctively European path. Particular attention is paid to the symbolic and ideological dimensions of his language and political imagination. In doing so, the article contributes to ongoing historiographical debates on the narratives of European integration and their entanglement with broader transformations in post-war transatlantic relations.