Journals
2009 EN
Simon Dubecq · Imen Ghattassi
This paper shows, from the consumer budget constraint, that the consumption spending and the different components of total wealth, i.e. financial, housing and human wealths, are cointegrated and that deviations from the common trend cahy is a proxy for the consumption-wealth ratio that should predict expected returns on financial assets and housing. Using U.S post-war data, we provide empirical evidence in favor of the existence of a cointegration relationship with a structural break in the mid-eighties. Moreover, we show that until the beginning of 2000, consumption spending and housing wealth were dominated by permanent shocks. The main variable that adjusts to restore the long-run trend when a deviation occurs is the financial wealth and therefore it presents the main transitory variations in total wealth. However, over the last period 2000-2009, most of transitory shocks in total wealth are associated to fluctuations in the housing component of wealth rather than financial wealth. Besides, we found that a small fraction of transitory changes in wealth is associated with movements in consumption. These conclusions are in line with our empirical results on the ability of the cahy to predict expected asset and housing returns. Indeed, until the beginning of 2000, the proxy of the consumption-wealth ratio predicts expected asset returns and fails to explain future fluctuations in housing returns.
Social Science Electronic Publishing
Journals
2009 EN
Ivo Maes
Alexandre Lamfalussy has been highly influential in the process of European monetary and financial integration. In this paper we will analyse the work of the "Young Lamfalussy" (from the mid 1950s to the mid 1960s). Lamfalussy started his career as an academic, focusing on growth theory and Belgian and European growth patterns in the post-war period. His work is still influential in recent literature on Europe's post-war economic growth. It fits nicely into the Keynesian tradition: Lamfalussy's analytical frameworks were often inspired by Keynesian models; in his analysis, he emphasised vicious and virtuous circles in the economy and, in his policy conclusions, he was a clear partisan of more planning. However, certain elements, typical also of Lamfalussy's later work, were already present, not least a strong European conviction and an eclectic approach towards economics, blending economic theory and empirical data beautifully to elucidate crucial policy problems.
Social Science Electronic Publishing
Journals
2009 EN
Rafael Grasa · Arnau Gutiérrez Camps
Is there a link between decentralized governance and conflict prevention? This article tries to answer the question by presenting the state of the art of the intersection of both concepts. Provided that social conflict is inevitable and given the appearance of new threats and types of violence, as well as new demands for security based on people (human security), our societies should focus on promoting peaceful changes. Through an extensive analysis of the existing literature and the study of several cases, this paper suggests that decentralized governance can contribute to these efforts by transforming conflicts, bringing about power-sharing and inclusion incentives of minority groups. Albeit the complexity of assessing its impact on conflict prevention, it can be contended that decentralized governance might have very positive effects on the reduction of causes that bring about conflicts due to its ability to foster the creation of war/violence preventors. More specifically, this paper argues that decentralization can have a positive impact on the so-called triggers and accelerators (short- and medium-term causes).
Social Science Electronic Publishing
Journals
2009 EN
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe · Israel OsorioRodarte · Andrew Burns
+1 more
The recent commodity boom was the longest and broadest of the post-World War II period. Although mostprices have declined sharply since their mid-2008 peak, they are still considerably higher than 2003, thebeginning of the boom. Apart from strong and sustained economic growth, the recent boom was fueled bynumerous other factors including low past investment in extractive commodities, weak dollar, fiscal expansion inmany countries, and, perhaps, investment fund activity. On the other hand, the diversion of some foodcommodities to the production of biofuels, adverse weather conditions, global stock declines to historical lowsand government policies, including export bans and prohibitive taxes, accelerated the price increases thateventually led to the 2008 rally. This paper concludes that the increased link between energy and non-energycommodity prices, strong demand by developing countries - when the current economic downturn reversescourse - and changing weather patterns will be the dominant forces that are likely to shape developments incommodity markets.
Social Science Electronic Publishing
Journals
2009 EN
James Stewart
Grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions are one type of war crime. In this Article, I argue that the grave breaches regime has three possible futures. In the first, the regime remains segregated from other categories of war crimes in deference to the historical development of these crimes. This future, however, is one that will see a relatively dramatic decline in the use of grave breaches in practice, primarily because other offences cover the same acts more efficiently. In the second possible future, the grave breaches are entirely abandoned, but this eventuality seems both improbable and undesirable. Even though judicial pragmatism has diminished aspects of the grave breaches regime that were once unique, grave breaches still offer important features over and above all alternatives. The grave breaches regime is therefore unlikely to disappear entirely. A third possible future involves assimilating the grave breaches with other categories of war crimes, ideally through the promulgation of a more coherent treaty regime. In the short term, this proposition appears politically untenable, leaving judges to unify the stark disparities between grave breaches and other war crimes. A future that continues to adopt this course will nonetheless pose serious problems for the discipline in the years to come. Over the longer term, a treaty creating a more comprehensive code governing all war crimes is therefore inevitable.
Social Science Electronic Publishing
Journals
2009 EN
Patricia Weiss Fagen
Over two million Iraqis are refugees in the Middle East, living in difficult conditions, primarily in Jordan and Syria. Their unresolved plight and their still largely unmet needs constitute a humanitarian crisis. Their presence has had an impact on the two countries where they are concentrated and, by extension, on the region as a whole. Although long hosts to Palestinian refugees, the countries of the Arab Middle East have not been major refugee destinations in recent decades and this report raises questions about the limited regional response to a major refugee flow. At this point, most Iraqis and their hosts hope for a quick and peaceful end to the insecurity that has precipitated the flight, but events in Iraq raise serious doubts that their hopes will soon be fulfilled. Some Iraqis are hoping for resettlement in the United States and other countries of the west, a hope thus far available only to a very few. The report raises questions about the apparently limited ability of the US and other countries to mobilize a major resettlement effort similar to those that took place during the Cold War. More fundamental to the lives of the vast majority of the Iraqi refugees, it calls on the international community to launch a more robust humanitarian response that will assist and protect the Iraqi refugees while addressing the legitimate economic, political and security concerns of Jordan and Syria as hosts to such large numbers of refugees.
Social Science Electronic Publishing
Journals
2009 EN
James Onley
This article examines Britain’s protection of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the Trucial States (United Arab Emirates), and Oman during the era of British hegemony in the region: 1820–1971. It argues that Britain’s role as guardian of the Persian Gulf, beginning in 1835, was not imposed coercively, that Britain largely conformed to local expectations of a protector’s duties and rights, and that its record in Eastern Arabia was far better than its record elsewhere in the Middle East. It begins with an overview of regional insecurity before the Pax Britannica. It then examines why Britain came to defend Eastern Arabia and the advantages and disadvantages that entailed for the local rulers. It explains the legal status of the Gulf shaikhdoms and Oman resulting from their treaties with Britain and their close relationship with the British Empire. It also discusses Britain’s post-war attempts to develop these states, the nature of Anglo–American relations in the region, and the growing challenges to Britain’s position in Eastern Arabia in the 1950s–60s. It provides a new account of Britain’s withdrawal from the Persian Gulf, showing how Britain introduced defense arrangements that remain in place forty years on. It finishes with a reflection on Britain’s legacy in the Gulf today.
Social Science Electronic Publishing
Journals
2009 EN
Stefan Kolev
The current paper is an attempt to reconstruct the economic policy debates in Bulgaria around the Great Depression in the 1930s. The goal is twofold. First, it is of interest to track down the development of Bulgarian economic thought in the inter-war period and to analyse its intellectual relationships to the evolution of European (especially German-language) political economy. Secondly, due to some significant analogies between the situation in the surveyed period and the current crisis, it seems possible to tentatively draw conclusions from the economists’ debates then as a contribution to crisis management and post-crisis development of Bulgaria today. The paper is only secondarily interested in the quantitative economic history of the 1930s; instead, the primary objective is to show that history of economic thought as a discipline can give qualitative indications how past theoretical discourse can be inspiring both for conducting economic policy and for avoiding past mistakes.
Social Science Electronic Publishing
Journals
2009 EN
Bruno Overlaet
The Roman emperors on the rock reliefs of Shapur I at Darabgird and Bishapur are traditionally identified as Gordianus 111, Philippus Arabs and Valerianus. The foreign delegations / prisoners on the Bishapur III relief have been interpreted as a reference to both the Roman Empire and the Eastern frontiers of the Sasanian Empire (Kushan). These references are evaluated and an alternative interpretation is considered. The Bishapur III Sculpture is seen as referring to Shapur's Syrian campaign in 253 AD. A heavy object among the booty is identified as the black stone of Emesa (ancient Homs in Syria), a famous baethvl. The spoils of war", such as the large boulder (stone of Emesa, depicted twice) a cart, textiles and vessels. all relate to Its cult. The Roman emperor is identified as the Roman usurper-emperor Uranius Antoninus, the last in line of the priest-kings of Emesa. Historic Sources relate this meeting between Shapur and Uranius Antoninus (called Sampsigeramos). The Roman emperor is depicted kneeling in supplication and standing as an ally next to Shapur's horse. Bishapur 11 and Darabgird represent the same event. This dates these reliefs to 254 AD
Book Series
2009 EN
Peter Clark · Marjaaiemi · Jari Niemelä
Green space has become a major issue in European cities in recent years as a result of enhanced environmental awareness, urban marketing, planning policy and growing population densities. Up to now, however, the subject of sports areas and grounds has attracted little research, despite the fact that since the First World War such public and private areas – from football pitches and running tracks to golf courses and tennis courts – have often comprised one of the most important and extensive types of green space in the European city. This book presents a pioneering comparative and multidisciplinary analysis of the development, use and impact of sports areas in the European city from the start of the 20th century up to the present time. Employing a range of historical, spatial and ecological approaches it examines when and why sports areas evolved, the contribution of municipalities and the private sector, the role of gender and class, and the impact on the urban landscape and ecology. Chapters cover urban sports areas in Finland, Britain, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy, illustrating the contrasts in the provision of green space across Europe.
Finnish Literature Society / SKS