Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008

In this paper we connect the events of the last twelve months, "the Panic of 2008" as it has been called, to the demand for international reserves. In previous work, we have shown that international reserve demand can be rationalized by a central bank's desire to backstop the broad money supply to avert the possibility of an internal/external double drain (a bank run combined with capital flight). Thus, simply looking at trade or short-term debt as motivations for reserve holdings is insufficient; one must also consider the size of the banking system (M2). Here, we show that a country's reserves holdings just before the current crisis, relative to their predicted holdings based on these financial motives, can significantly predict exchange rate movements of both emerging and advanced countries in 2008. Countries with large war chests did not depreciate—and some appreciated. Meanwhile, those who held insufficient reserves based on our metric were likely to depreciate. Current account balances and short- term debt levels are not statistically significant predictors of depreciation once reserve levels are taken into account. Our model's typically high predicted reserves levels provide important context for the unprecedented U.S. dollar swap lines recently provided to many countries by the Federal Reserve.

The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility

We investigate the consequences of demographic change for business cycle analysis. We find that changes in the age composition of the labor force account for a significant fraction of the variation in cyclical volatility observed in the G7. Since World War II, these countries have experienced dramatic demographic changes, although details regarding timing and nature differ across countries. We exploit this variation to show that the workforce age composition has a large and significant effect on cyclical volatility. We relate our results to the recent decline in US macroeconomic volatility, finding that demographic change accounts for approximately one-fifth to one-third of this moderation. (JEL E32, J11)

Field Experiments in Class Size from the Early Twentieth Century

A vast majority of adults believe that class size reductions are a good way to improve the quality of public schools. Reviews of the research literature, on the other hand, have provided mixed messages on the degree to which class size matters for student achievement. Here I will discuss a substantial, but overlooked, body of experimental work on class size that developed prior to World War II. These field experiments did not have the benefit of modern econometrics, and only a few were done on a reasonably large scale. However, they often used careful empirical designs, and the collective magnitude of this body of work is considerable. Moreover, this research produced little evidence to suggest that students learn more in smaller classes, which stands in contrast to some, though not all, of the most recent work by economists. In this essay, I provide an overview of the scope and breadth of the field experiments in class size conducted prior to World War II, the motivations behind them, and how their experimental designs were crafted to deal with perceived sources of bias. I discuss how one might interpret the findings of these early experimental results alongside more recent research.

Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War

Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new dataset of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify the effects of assassination. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history. (JEL D72, N40, O17)

Richard III: a study in medical misrepresentation

Η βυζαντινή πολεµική τακτική εναντίον των Φράγκων κατά τον 13ο αιώνα και η µάχη του Tagliacozzo

Β YZANTINE BATTLE TACTICS AGAINST THE FRANKS IN THE 13th CENTURY AND THE BATTLE OF TACLIACOZZOIn 1268 Charles I of Anjou (1266-1285) confronted the army of Conradin (1254-1268) in Tagliacozzo, achieving a victory that established his position in Sicily. The prince of Morea WilliamII of Villehardouin (1246-1278), took part in the battle with 400 knights levied from the principality. The Chronicle of the Morea attributes the victory of Charles I to William II’s advice to fight using similar tactics applied by the Byzantines and the Turks in the Greek mainland.The prince had acquired important experience of the war conditions in Morea and Greece before the battle of Tagliacozzo fighting against the Byzantines. Hereof, it is possible that William II took advantage of this experience and played an important role in the positive outcome of the battle, even though not as crucial as the Chronicle tries to ascribe to him.On the other hand, it is proven by close examination of other Byzantine and western sources of the period that the battle description of the Chronicle is an authentic testimony of the Byzantine battle tactics exercised against the Franks during the 13 th century and especially the way these tactics were seen through the eyes of the latter.

The French Sources between the Young Kazantzakis and Nietzsche

Kazantzakis wrote in 1909 a dissertation on Nietzsche's philosophy, in view of a career at the University of Athens. He based this dissertation mainly on studies by French scholars, which provided him not only with most of its content, but also with its very structure. The description of the meaning of Greece to Nietzsche, for example, and the references to ancient Greek authors are indebted to these French commentators, rather than to a direct reading of the primary source. Even more importantly, some of the concepts that Kazantzakis attributes to Nietzsche, and which play an essential role in his own thinking, up to the period of his great post-World War II novels, appear to be based on a mistaken interpretation of Nietzsche by Lichtenberger, according to which man is a particle of the divine substance, the eternal Will. For the real Nietzsche, the mysteries of sexuality constitute the only form of eternal life.

United States Foreign Policy and the Liberal Awakening in Greece, 1958-1967

This paper traces the evolution and outcome of the US opening to the Greek Center triggered by the May 1958 parliamentary elections. It focuses on the role which that opening played in the liberal awakening that took shape under the banner of the Center Union (CU) party, founded in September 1961. After John F. Kennedy assumed the US presidency (January 1961), New Frontier liberals, including Andreas Papandreou, son of CU leader George Papandreou, pushed more aggressively for this opening, which was validated by the Center Union's rise to power in November 1963, the same month as the Kennedy assassination. During the Johnson Administration, US liberal policies in Greece were tested and found wanting, as Cold War fears trumped the US embrace of reform and change in Greece. The American retreat drove US policies towards bankruptcy, culminating in an uneasy acceptance of the 1967 Greek military dictatorship, wreaking permanent damage on Greek-US relations.

Andrej Mitrovic, Serbia's Great War, 1914-1918

Polychlorinated Biphenyl Levels and its Correlation to Size of Marine Organisms Harvested from a War-Induced Oil Spill Zone of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

This is the first work establishing a base-line data of the level of total Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB) contaminants in selected marine organisms (Siganus rivulatus, Mullet spp., and oysters) and its relationship to organism size and the harvest distance from the oil spill source. Six locations across the Lebanese Mediterranean were included for sampling. Oysters and the two fish types were collected after 72 days of the spill. The length, maximum width, and whole weight of individual organisms were recorded. Methanol extracts of the samples were analyzed for total PCB using a Competitive Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) based Spectrophotometry.All means of PCB in the three selected marine organisms were below the guidance level set by USFDA (2 ppm). A total of 6 significant regression equations were established between the total PCB level and certain size dimensions of specific selected marine species, with values of R2 ranging between 0.719 – 0.909 and P values ranging from 0.038 – 0.099.In addition, the total PCB level in Siganus rivulatus correlated with the harvest distance north of the oil spill source, signifying a drop in total PCB level with an increase in harvest distance from the oil spill source.